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CBS News poll finds Democrat Casey narrowly leading in Senate race in Pennsylvania

By
Kabir Khanna
Kabir Khanna
Director, Election Analytics & Technical Systems
Kabir Khanna, Ph.D., is Director, Election Analytics & Technical Systems at CBS News. He analyzes elections and public opinion through survey research and data science tools. On election nights, he manages the team of experts responsible for projecting winners at the network Data Desk.
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Kabir Khanna

/ CBS News

In a key U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey is still ahead. His lead over Republican Dave McCormick currently stands at six points, which is within the margin of error.

More of the state's voters describe Casey's positions as generally "reasonable" than "extreme" — and on this measure, he has an advantage over McCormick who draws more mixed views.

Casey has led in the race both times CBS News has previously polled it in April and September.

The competitiveness of the race comes as no surprise because many previously undecided voters looked like they were closer to the GOP. While Republicans are backing McCormick in large numbers, there's room for improvement there. But at 84%, his support from Republicans still is not matching Casey's 92% among Democrats.

While Casey's lead is not safe, he has run noticeably ahead of Kamala Harris, who is deadlocked with Donald Trump in the state's presidential race. Compared to Harris' margins, Casey is doing especially well with White, non-college men — he's losing them, but by half the margin Harris is.

And Trump's support of McCormick may not be helping much. Most likely voters say it makes no difference to whether they'll back McCormick. And a third of independents — whom McCormick needs to make up ground with — say it makes them less likely to back him. Overall, 7% of Pennsylvania likely voters say they are not sure about their Senate vote.

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This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a statewide representative sample of 1,273 registered voters in Pennsylvania interviewed between October 22-28, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education and geographic region, based on U.S. Census data and voter files, as well as to past vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.6 points.

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