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What to know about Red Flag Warnings in Michigan

By Karen Carter

/ CBS Detroit

(CBS DETROIT) - This week is Fire Prevention Week. On Sunday, we saw Red Flag Warnings for multiple counties across the state. Thankfully, those warnings expired by the end of the day, but many communities throughout Michigan are still under a "Very High" Fire Danger Rating, something that is rare in Michigan in October. 

Jaclyn Anderson, Warning Coordinator National Weather Service-Detroit, says, "Red Flag Warnings are essentially a product that goes out that tells people that if a fire were to start, the weather conditions may cause it to grow rapidly." She says the DNR and National Weather Service have a symbiotic relationship when it comes to forecasting fires in Michigan. The DNR are the experts in fuels-- what and how things burn. The National Weather Service forecasts how the weather could influence a potential fire. 

michigan-red-flag-warning.png
A Red Flag Warning was issued for several Michigan counties over the weekend, which is rare for October. National Weather Service

The criteria in Southeast Michigan for Red Flag Warnings include temperatures of 75 degrees or more, relative humidity of 25% or less, and sustained winds averaging 15 m.p.h. or more, but this criteria can vary depending on the fuel and dryness of the land.

"It's more common to see Red Flag Warnings in the spring, so April, May, sometimes into June. It is a little more rare to see them in October, but we have seen them in October in the past," Anderson states.

In fact, it's been 14 years since we've seen Red Flag Warnings in Michigan in October.

Many communities around Michigan are currently under a "Very High" Fire Danger Rating, which is a level 4 out of 5. This rating means fires can easily start, suppression efforts may not be able to outlast the spread, flames will be difficult to control, and burns are not recommended.

These fire ratings are based on several mathematical factors, including the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, Ignition Component, Spread Component, Energy Release Component, and Burn Index.

The short-range forecast indicates wind speeds will be low and temperatures will be mild. However, the precipitation in our forecast is welcome to help ensure we don't see more Red Flag Warnings in the near future. Now, that's the Science of Weather. For CBS News Detroit, I'm Karen Carter.

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