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Zoomin' with Zoe: Taking a look at the possibility of a 'super' El Nino in 2026

By Zoe Mintz

/ CBS San Francisco

There have been several media posts about a 'super' or 'mega' El Niño event in the forecast. That's just not factual; here's what scientists really know.

La Niña has officially ended. The cooler waters in the eastern Pacific have shifted warmer, and we are now heading towards a likely El Niño period later this year. There is a 61% chance for El Niño conditions to return between May and July, and over 90% by September.

When it comes to a 'super' El Niño, that's not a real category. El Niño events are categorized by weak, moderate, strong, and very strong events. At this current moment, there's nearly equal chances, 25% chance any given event will occur. So yes, there is going to be an El Niño event beginning later this year, but no, we cannot guarantee it's going to be a strong one, and it's definitely not going to be a 'mega' one. 

Taking a step back, what exactly are El Niño and La Niña? It all revolves around the trade winds in the equatorial Pacific having an effect on the sea surface temperature. Normally, trade winds blow east to west and bring warm surface water from South America to Asia. 

Some years, the trade winds are much weaker, which keeps the warm surface water from moving across the ocean, so it just sits in the eastern Pacific. 

The effects of El Niño are strongest in the winter, bringing warmer weather to the Pacific Northwest and wetter weather to Southern California, the Desert SW, and the Southeast. The Bay Area is just north of the 'usually wetter' area, but it's still possible we get in on some extra precipitation this winter. 

What is more concerning this summer is the fact that there's an abnormally warm blob of water sitting off the West Coast. Normally, it's the cooler ocean air that keeps temperatures comfortable and fire danger at a minimum across the Bay. 

But with warmer ocean temperatures this summer, there's likely going to be hotter temperatures, especially at the coast, with less fog, higher fire danger with drier weather, and even the potential for stronger Pacific hurricanes. Hurricanes are fueled by heat, so hotter water in the Pacific means more fuel for storms.

The heat can also kill fish and wildlife that thrive on the cool Pacific water, as well as cause possible algal blooms. All things we will keep a close eye on this summer and stay tuned for El Niño's impacts this winter. 

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